BetfairGuru World Cup 2018 Experiment
Russia to win Group A @ 3.05
Croatia to win Group D @ 3.3
Serbia to qualify from Group E @ 2.3
South Korea to finish rock-bottom of Group F @ 1.83
England to win Group G @ 2.38
Tunisia to finish rock-bottom of Group G @ 2.86
Poland to win Group H @ 2.84
Senegal to finish rock-bottom of Group H @ 3.4
Back France to win @ 7.6
Back Spain to win @ 7.4
Diego Costa top-goalscorer @ 29
Andrej Kramaric top-goalscorer @ 330+
Radamel Falcao top-goalscorer @ 55
France vs Spain Final @ 21
This page features an experimental look at the upcoming Fifa World Cup 2018
The page is pretty simple to follow, with the full tournament projected down the center of the page and auxiliary information to both the left and the right hand columns
In the left-hand column you'll see bets that should theoretically make sense if the model is accurate. I'll be keeping a record of all bets listed and if you want to keep an eye on progress as well, you can download the full bet list using the drop-down at the top of the page
To the right hand side, you'll find additional ratings for the Top 10 in each category.
Each section is discussed in brief detail but if you want more details and some insight into how I've gone about building and testing this model, you can download the technical notes for free using the link on the dropdown.
This is all matches due to be played in the group stage
I requested a supremacy of 0.2 - so whichever side has an advantage bigger than that will be deemed the winner. In practise, it's rare for a match to be that close but anything less than that supremacy for either side would result in a draw.
I'm logging all bets and will post updated results at the top of the page on completion of the tournament.
|Thursday 14th June 2018||16:00||Russia Vs Saudi Arabia||1.42||5.00||14.00||Russia|
|Friday 15th June 2018||13:00||Egypt Vs Uruguay||7.50||3.75||1.66||Uruguay|
|Friday 15th June 2018||16:00||Morocco Vs IR Iran||2.43||3.04||3.80||Morocco|
|Friday 15th June 2018||19:00||Portugal Vs Spain||4.95||3.52||1.91||Spain|
|Saturday 16th June 2018||11:00||France Vs Australia||1.29||6.90||19.00||France|
|Saturday 16th June 2018||14:00||Argentina Vs Iceland||1.39||4.90||15.00||Argentina|
|Saturday 16th June 2018||17:00||Peru Vs Denmark||3.60||3.32||2.48||Denmark|
|Saturday 16th June 2018||20:00||Croatia Vs Nigeria||1.80||3.78||5.85||Croatia|
|Sunday 17th June 2018||13:00||Costa Rica Vs Serbia||4.50||3.40||2.05||Serbia|
|Sunday 17th June 2018||16:00||Germany Vs Mexico||1.53||4.40||8.20||Germany|
|Sunday 17th June 2018||19:00||Brazil Vs Switzerland||1.44||5.00||10.00||Brazil|
|Monday 18th June 2018||13:00||Sweden Vs Korea Republic||2.12||3.30||4.20||Sweden|
|Monday 18th June 2018||16:00||Belgium Vs Panama||1.20||8.00||26.00||Belgium|
|Monday 18th June 2018||19:00||Tunisia Vs England||11.00||4.75||1.41||England|
|Tuesday 19th June 2018||13:00||Poland Vs Senegal||2.37||3.30||3.50||Poland|
|Tuesday 19th June 2018||16:00||Colombia Vs Japan||1.80||3.72||5.95||Colombia|
|Tuesday 19th June 2018||19:00||Russia Vs Egypt||2.08||3.48||4.50||Russia|
|Wednesday 20th June 2018||13:00||Portugal Vs Morocco||1.68||3.86||6.50||Portugal|
|Wednesday 20th June 2018||16:00||Uruguay Vs Saudi Arabia||1.25||6.25||19.00||Uruguay|
|Wednesday 20th June 2018||19:00||IR Iran Vs Spain||21.00||6.80||1.23||Spain|
|Thursday 21st June 2018||13:00||France Vs Peru||1.47||4.80||10.00||France|
|Thursday 21st June 2018||16:00||Denmark Vs Australia||1.75||3.82||5.75||Denmark|
|Thursday 21st June 2018||19:00||Argentina Vs Croatia||1.96||3.56||4.50||Croatia|
|Friday 22nd June 2018||13:00||Brazil Vs Costa Rica||1.27||6.50||16.00||Brazil|
|Friday 22nd June 2018||16:00||Nigeria Vs Iceland||2.80||3.25||2.97||Draw|
|Friday 22nd June 2018||19:00||Serbia Vs Switzerland||3.02||3.30||2.67||Draw|
|Saturday 23rd June 2018||13:00||Belgium Vs Tunisia||1.33||5.55||13.00||Belgium|
|Saturday 23rd June 2018||16:00||Germany Vs Sweden||1.47||4.75||8.40||Germany|
|Saturday 23rd June 2018||19:00||Korea Republic Vs Mexico||5.00||3.58||1.95||Mexico|
|Sunday 24th June 2018||13:00||England Vs Panama||1.22||7.00||21.00||England|
|Sunday 24th June 2018||16:00||Japan Vs Senegal||3.56||3.36||2.38||Draw|
|Sunday 24th June 2018||19:00||Poland Vs Colombia||3.06||3.34||2.57||Poland|
|Monday 25th June 2018||15:00||Saudi Arabia Vs Egypt||6.00||3.72||1.77||Egypt|
|Monday 25th June 2018||15:00||Uruguay Vs Russia||2.45||3.34||3.34||Draw|
|Monday 25th June 2018||19:00||IR Iran Vs Portugal||10.50||4.90||1.40||Portugal|
|Monday 25th June 2018||19:00||Spain Vs Morocco||1.40||5.35||10.50||Spain|
|Tuesday 26th June 2018||15:00||Australia Vs Peru||3.60||3.52||2.29||Australia|
|Tuesday 26th June 2018||15:00||Denmark Vs France||6.00||3.90||1.69||France|
|Tuesday 26th June 2018||19:00||Iceland Vs Croatia||5.20||3.55||1.87||Croatia|
|Tuesday 26th June 2018||19:00||Nigeria Vs Argentina||8.00||4.50||1.52||Argentina|
|Wednesday 27th June 2018||15:00||Mexico Vs Sweden||2.60||3.20||3.20||Mexico|
|Wednesday 27th June 2018||15:00||Korea Republic Vs Germany||13.00||6.10||1.30||Germany|
|Wednesday 27th June 2018||19:00||Serbia Vs Brazil||9.90||5.35||1.40||Draw|
|Wednesday 27th June 2018||19:00||Switzerland Vs Costa Rica||1.92||3.54||4.85||Switzerland|
|Thursday 28th June 2018||15:00||Japan Vs Poland||4.50||3.55||1.96||Poland|
|Thursday 28th June 2018||15:00||Senegal Vs Colombia||4.50||3.42||2.03||Colombia|
|Thursday 28th June 2018||19:00||England Vs Belgium||3.00||3.40||2.61||England|
|Thursday 28th June 2018||19:00||Panama Vs Tunisia||3.64||3.30||2.31||Panama|
This section looks at groups and they are displayed here in expected finishing order.
This step is important since it denotes which teams will play each other in the next round.
You will note that some groups feature teams tied for points. In these situations, the team with a better Attack rating was given the higher placing on account that they logically should have scored more goals
Here we have a simulation of the Second Round (Last 16)
This could look very different of course, depending on what happens within the group stages. However, if the groups go as projected, this is the Last 16 line-up we'll see with our model's winner selected in each.
|Saturday 30th June||15:00||France vs Argentina||France|
|Saturday 30th June||19:00||Russia vs Portugal||Portugal|
|Sunday 1st July||15:00||Spain vs Uruguay||Spain|
|Sunday 1st July||19:00||Croatia Vs Denmark||Croatia|
|Monday 2nd July||15:00||Brazil vs Mexico||Brazil|
|Monday 2nd July||19:00||England vs Colombia||England|
|Tuesday 3rd July||15:00||Germany vs Serbia||Germany|
|Tuesday 3rd July||19:00||Poland vs Belgium||Belgium|
Quickly getting into the business end of the tournament now and our quarter-finals are projected below.
As you'll see in the guide, if you chose to download it, I firmly believe England are hopelessly over-rated and that this will as far as they go. However, there's no point trying to build an objective rating model if you're going to corrupt it with your own subjective opinions.
France, Germany and Spain look to be cofortable victors although the Brazil vs England game is a close one with Englands defensive solidity playing a big part in getting them through.
|Friday 6th July||15:00||Portugal vs France||France|
|Friday 6th July||19:00||Brazil Vs England||England|
|Saturday 7th July||15:00||Germany vs Belgium||Germany|
|Saturday 7th July||19:00||Spain vs Croatia||Spain|
At this stage, we could be seeing vastly different match-ups as they permutations are many and much depends on final group positioning. if we didn't get that right, we won't see these matches in the Semi's but this is a projection of what's likely to happen based on the number's we're working with.
Those numbers may well be very wrong, in which case we'll have to refine the idea.
However, in past tournaments, I've seen solid success with this model and I've no reason to doubt it's efficacy in all honesty
The model suggests that France will comfortably beat England and that Spain will secure a narrow victory over Germany although penalties seem unlikely in both games.
|Tuesday 10th July||15:00||France Vs England||France|
|Wednesday 11th July||19:00||Spain vs Germany||Spain|
Third Place Playoff
With everything going to plan we have two strong teams fighting it out for third
Germany are much the stronger side by all metrics though and should be comfortable winners in this scenario
|Saturday 14th July||15:00||England Vs Germany||Germany|
With Spain, as the top-rated side before a ball is kicked, having knocked out the 2nd strongest(Germany) in the Semi's, we have them now trying to take care of the 3rd top-rated to emerge victorious
The figures say it should be reasonably comfortable for Spain but by no means high-scoring with France deemed very solid defensively
|Sunday 15th July||15:00||France Vs Spain||Spain|
What I Expect To See & Possible Flaws
The first thing I expect we'll see is more draws. I'm not 100% that a 0.2 goal supremacy is an effective cut-off point but it's very difficult to judge these things with games played at international Football tournaments being fairly infrequent affairs.
I also think some of the teams are quite over-rated. England being a prime example and I suspect their defensive ratings in particular arising from the fact their squad has a heavy lean towards players playing for a handful of top teams in a single league. With teams like France, their squad consists of players from across Europe and from many different strengths of team - not always the strongest. As such, France's ratings would be spread thinner than perhaps they should be whereas England's players are complimented by having played almost exclusively with first-class international squad mates.
I hope I've explained that issue properly but I've also touched on it in a bit more detail in the guide
Another issue we'll see is that with some squads featuring players in obscure leagues, Saudi Arabia for example, it's difficult to calculate accurate player ratings to indicate how strong different aspects of their game are. I suspect we'll see teams like Egypt and Tunisia cause more issues than the model suggest they will since they're very technically-capable sides but the model is just writing them off entirely.
All that said, this is, and will likely remain, a work in progress. It's difficult to build an adequate sample size when we're dealing with International Football tournaments as they only come around once every 2 years.
Hopefully, if we can predict where we expect to see flaws in advance, we can refine the model if those fears are proven to be correct.
Top 10 Rated Teams
Top 10 Rated Goalkeepers
Top 10 Rated Defenders
Top 10 Rated Midfielders
|Ángel Di María||Argentina||902|
|Giovani dos Sant||Mexico||879|
Top 10 Rated Attackers